Just a Few More Doublings…

…till we get a genuinely brain-like computer?  According to this, we’re not too far away:

The most powerful computer on the planet would need 8 ½ minutes to simulate less than ten seconds of normal human brain activity. That same computer will consume 1.4 million watts of energy, while the brain will consume about ten. These are the numbers researchers at Stanford were facing when they decided to design a nanoscale computational device that would attempt to emulate synapses of the brain. With the rapid expansion of computational technology and terms like “the singularity” and “quantum computing” becoming more a part of the pop-culture lexicon – we are left to wonder… What does a more “brain-like” computer mean for the future of technology? What implications could this have for artificial intelligence and where could we find ourselves in the future? Come with questions.

It now takes 510 seconds to simulate 10 seconds of human brain activity.  Just 51 times slower.  By doubling today’s computer capability a mere 5 times, we’re darned close.  Double it one more time, and the computer is modeling the human brain faster than the brain operates.   We can easily presume that power usage would also similarly drop.

What is that in Moore’s Law numbers?  12 years?  Look for something big in 2023.

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